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Sunday 24 January 2010
Friday 20 February 2009
Nick's Picks from the Championship - 21/2/09
Another weekend, another tough fixture list to pick from in the Championship. Lots of ties featuring struggling teams at home to high-fliers means the value is there, but so is the risk. However, we don't know the meaning of the word risk at Premier Picks Central so let's get this party started.
Norwich v Burnley
Last week I outlined my reasons why I usually avoid making picks involving my team, then proceeded to accurately predict that Norwich would get nothing away at Preston. This week I took one look at the fixture list and the first thing that jumped out at me was that Burnley are widely being offered at 6/4. As a neutral I would be tempted by this offer. Burnley are on a very impressive run, fighting for the playoffs while Norwich have just dropped into the relegation zone with many fans talking about relegation as if it was a certainty. I still expect Carrow Road to be jumping at kick off, but if Burnley can silence that noise early it could be a long day for Bryan Gunn's team.
Burnley @ 6/4 Bet365
Southampton v Preston
Tricky one this. Preston are still riding high in the league, but they have been a little patchy of late, while Southampton haven't started to show faint signs of life under new management. That said, Southampton have conceded 2 goals in each of their last 5 matches. Preston have struggled a little on their travels, so I'm not sure if that run will continue for the Saints, but I still can't see Southampton getting their second home win of the season. The various handicap markets don't immediately seem to offer much value, but might be worth a look if you're looking to safeguard your investment. I'm recommending the draw at 12/5.
Draw @ 12/5 Coral
QPR v Ipswich
The late game on Sky sees two teams who both had high hopes coming into the season after a summer of spending by wealthy owners, but have not lived up to that promise. As the homestretch looms now is the time to make a push for the playoffs and both sides will be looking to launch that push here. QPR have been strong at home, while Ipswich have been inconsistent both home and away. Ipswich are without a few useful players and you have to think the growing clamour for Jim Magilton to be sacked is going to prove an unwelcome distraction. I'm taking QPR here.
QPR @ 21/20 Bet365
Treble pays 16/1
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Another weekend, another tough fixture list to pick from in the Championship. Lots of ties featuring struggling teams at home to high-fliers means the value is there, but so is the risk. However, we don't know the meaning of the word risk at Premier Picks Central so let's get this party started.
Norwich v Burnley
Last week I outlined my reasons why I usually avoid making picks involving my team, then proceeded to accurately predict that Norwich would get nothing away at Preston. This week I took one look at the fixture list and the first thing that jumped out at me was that Burnley are widely being offered at 6/4. As a neutral I would be tempted by this offer. Burnley are on a very impressive run, fighting for the playoffs while Norwich have just dropped into the relegation zone with many fans talking about relegation as if it was a certainty. I still expect Carrow Road to be jumping at kick off, but if Burnley can silence that noise early it could be a long day for Bryan Gunn's team.
Burnley @ 6/4 Bet365
Southampton v Preston
Tricky one this. Preston are still riding high in the league, but they have been a little patchy of late, while Southampton haven't started to show faint signs of life under new management. That said, Southampton have conceded 2 goals in each of their last 5 matches. Preston have struggled a little on their travels, so I'm not sure if that run will continue for the Saints, but I still can't see Southampton getting their second home win of the season. The various handicap markets don't immediately seem to offer much value, but might be worth a look if you're looking to safeguard your investment. I'm recommending the draw at 12/5.
Draw @ 12/5 Coral
QPR v Ipswich
The late game on Sky sees two teams who both had high hopes coming into the season after a summer of spending by wealthy owners, but have not lived up to that promise. As the homestretch looms now is the time to make a push for the playoffs and both sides will be looking to launch that push here. QPR have been strong at home, while Ipswich have been inconsistent both home and away. Ipswich are without a few useful players and you have to think the growing clamour for Jim Magilton to be sacked is going to prove an unwelcome distraction. I'm taking QPR here.
QPR @ 21/20 Bet365
Treble pays 16/1
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Thursday 19 February 2009
UEFA Cup Round of 32 - 19/2/09
If you wanted proof that Spring is on the way here comes the return of the UEFA Cup. We've finally got the rather too blatantly money-spinning group stage out of the way and can now get on with the tournament proper. Aston Villa had a tough time at home last night and will face a tough task in Moscow in their away leg; tonight sees two more English clubs in action.
FC Copenhagen v Manchester City - BBC 3 - K.O. 19:05
Both the English clubs in action tonight will be playing their away legs first and I suspect both will be very happy this is the case. Man City may have struggled at times this season (particularly away from Eastlands), but you have to think they were delighted to be drawn against Copenhagen. Expect the Danes to be disciplined and hardworking, but the talent available to Mark Hughes should be sufficient to see Man City return home with a lead.
Man City @ 7/5 Coral
Shakhtar Donetsk v Tottenham Hotspur - Five - K.O. 18:45
It is no secret that Spurs have struggled woefully at times this season leaving them 2 points clear of the relegation zone and in genuine danger of the drop. With this fear hanging over the club it is no surprise that Harry Redknapp has basically admitted that the UEFA Cup is little more than a distraction for his team at the moment and that he is far more concerned about the Premiership game against Hull on Monday. Donetsk are always going to be something of an unknown for teams from Western Europe. The one thing that is widely known is that they have pots of money thanks to one of those oligarch owners that were all the rage before the global economy imploded. This means that they will field a side stuffed with Brazilian talent who came to the Ukraine for a big paycheque with no concerns about work permits (after all, the Premiership is hardly short on clubs that would be only too happy to offer big money to players from all over the world if the pesky Home Office would let them). I was originally thinking that Spurs could forget about their home troubles for an evening and snatch a draw here, but the list of players that aren't available for various reasons includes Defoe, Keane, Palacios, Cudicini, Modric, Woodgate, King, Lennon, O'Hara and Corluka. Expect to see some unfamiliar faces in Spurs' colours tonight.
Shakhtar Donetsk @ 10/11 Coral
Double pays £45.84 on £10.00 Stake
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If you wanted proof that Spring is on the way here comes the return of the UEFA Cup. We've finally got the rather too blatantly money-spinning group stage out of the way and can now get on with the tournament proper. Aston Villa had a tough time at home last night and will face a tough task in Moscow in their away leg; tonight sees two more English clubs in action.
FC Copenhagen v Manchester City - BBC 3 - K.O. 19:05
Both the English clubs in action tonight will be playing their away legs first and I suspect both will be very happy this is the case. Man City may have struggled at times this season (particularly away from Eastlands), but you have to think they were delighted to be drawn against Copenhagen. Expect the Danes to be disciplined and hardworking, but the talent available to Mark Hughes should be sufficient to see Man City return home with a lead.
Man City @ 7/5 Coral
Shakhtar Donetsk v Tottenham Hotspur - Five - K.O. 18:45
It is no secret that Spurs have struggled woefully at times this season leaving them 2 points clear of the relegation zone and in genuine danger of the drop. With this fear hanging over the club it is no surprise that Harry Redknapp has basically admitted that the UEFA Cup is little more than a distraction for his team at the moment and that he is far more concerned about the Premiership game against Hull on Monday. Donetsk are always going to be something of an unknown for teams from Western Europe. The one thing that is widely known is that they have pots of money thanks to one of those oligarch owners that were all the rage before the global economy imploded. This means that they will field a side stuffed with Brazilian talent who came to the Ukraine for a big paycheque with no concerns about work permits (after all, the Premiership is hardly short on clubs that would be only too happy to offer big money to players from all over the world if the pesky Home Office would let them). I was originally thinking that Spurs could forget about their home troubles for an evening and snatch a draw here, but the list of players that aren't available for various reasons includes Defoe, Keane, Palacios, Cudicini, Modric, Woodgate, King, Lennon, O'Hara and Corluka. Expect to see some unfamiliar faces in Spurs' colours tonight.
Shakhtar Donetsk @ 10/11 Coral
Double pays £45.84 on £10.00 Stake
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Monday 16 February 2009
FA Cup 4th Round Replay Monday February 16th
Arsenal v Cardiff (Live on Setanta Sports)
Well I think its a relief to us all that this tie will finally be put to bed tonight. 22 days after Arsenal and Cardiff played out a rather stale 0-0 at Ninian Park, Setanta dare again to show the replay at The Emirates. This one was called off two weeks ago because of the heavy snow and now, a round behind the rest of the competition, these two sides will meet for a chance to play Burnley in round 5. Arsenal go into this game as heavy favourites but they really have not been playing well, failing to score in their last three games. Their exciting new signing Arshavin is cup tied, Adebayor has a hamstring injury and Croatian striker Eduardo is still not match fit. Championship Cardiff are a difficult side to break down and their run to the Final last season will be a source of inspiration as they look to reach the latter stages of this competition again. Due to Arsenal's lack of form, their paucity of options in midfield and attack and the fact that Cardiff will be chomping at the bit for this game, I'm going to take the Welsh side to secure at least a draw in 90 minutes play.
Draw @ 100/30 Stan James
Well I think its a relief to us all that this tie will finally be put to bed tonight. 22 days after Arsenal and Cardiff played out a rather stale 0-0 at Ninian Park, Setanta dare again to show the replay at The Emirates. This one was called off two weeks ago because of the heavy snow and now, a round behind the rest of the competition, these two sides will meet for a chance to play Burnley in round 5. Arsenal go into this game as heavy favourites but they really have not been playing well, failing to score in their last three games. Their exciting new signing Arshavin is cup tied, Adebayor has a hamstring injury and Croatian striker Eduardo is still not match fit. Championship Cardiff are a difficult side to break down and their run to the Final last season will be a source of inspiration as they look to reach the latter stages of this competition again. Due to Arsenal's lack of form, their paucity of options in midfield and attack and the fact that Cardiff will be chomping at the bit for this game, I'm going to take the Welsh side to secure at least a draw in 90 minutes play.
Draw @ 100/30 Stan James
Saturday 14 February 2009
Inter Milan v AC Milan (7.30pm Live on BBC Three)
Given the BBC’s decision to decorate us all with a late valentine’s gift, its only right we focus our attention exclusively on Sunday’s Milan derby.
The Case for Mourinho
The ‘special one’ will be desperate for a win here considering the 1-0 reversal his side suffered at the hands of the Rossenari earlier in the season. After seeing Juventus drop off the pace in recent weeks, Inter will be keen to cut off the recent optimism from across the City, and eradicate suggestions that their great rivals could pose their biggest threat.
Inter’s defence is the meanest in all of Italy and will be more than confident of holding a Milan side likely to be without Kaka, their most creative influence. Indeed Inter’s main problem could be in attack. They rely heavily on support from their Brazilian full backs, and news of an injury to Maicon could be a big blow. While Zlatan Ibrahimavic undoubtedly has the quality, and has been far more consistent this season, the doubts still remain about his reliability in the big games. Indeed with Daniel Bonera out suspended, Milan could potentially field a central defensive partnership of Paolo Maldini and Philipe Sendoras; Zlatan will therefore get his chance, whether he takes it or not will be the key to a Nerazzuri victory.
The Case for Ancellotti
With Kaka a sidelined (though there have been whispers of a shock return) and Ronaldinho looking ineffectual for the last three months, Milan’s hopes of breaking the iron tight Inter backline look slim. Indeed their lack of real striking options was highlighted against lowly Reggina only last week. Add that to an injury and suspension hit backline, and most punters will probably be predicting a home win here.
Milan though know how to play the really big games. While Ancelotti’s men are often criticised as being over the hill, in the likes of Seedorf, Beckham, Maldini, Shevchenko and Ronaldinho (the list goes on), they have more than enough experience to handle the big occasion. With Alessandro Nesta rated 50-50, his return to the Milan defence could hold the key to their chances.
Prediction: A tough one to call, but with a draw probably acceptable to Inter, I expect Mourinho to perhaps be a little over negative here, and if Inter’s defence can’t be breached in open play, there’s always likely to be a chance from a set-piece, and who better to have than Ronaldinho and Beckham in your ranks
Inter 1-1 Milan 11/2
Sunday February 15th - FA Cup 5th Round and Old Firm Derby
Its just possible that the three games left this week are even more difficult to predict than the two I had a crack at last Sunday. Still, buoyed from being only whisker away from landing an unlikely double, here we go with a chance to capitalise on some decent prices.
Celtic v Rangers (12.30pm Live on Setanta Sports)
These games are nearly always absolute crackers. Two sides that are spurred on by sets of supporters who have an incredible passion for this fixture usually go all out to win this one. Rangers have done a commendable job to close what was looking like a formidable gap at Christmas and Walter Smith's men may just have psychological edge over their Green and White hooped opponents. Celtic will be wondering how they managed to squander such a commanding lead in the SPL and will be desperate to put three points between themselves and the Ibrox men to increase their advantage to five points. Rangers won the first meeting of the season at Celtic Park 4-2 and I just fancy they may draw on this and punish Celtic to climb to the summit for now.
Rangers @ 11/5 Bet365
Everton v Aston Villa (2.30pm Live on Setanta Sports)
Setanta serve us a double helping of live top class football for a Sunday afternoon. Its exactly this kind of match which fails to inspire "the magic of the cup" in me, but, these are two very good sides and its just possible they may produce a contest to match. Not that I expect this one to be much of a spectacle - both sides are in lockdown mode currently, giving no quarter and conceding very few goals. Everton looked particularly impressive last weekend in the Premier League but the main man that day, on loan Brazilian striker Jo, is cup tied for this one. Aston Villa have now won seven consecutive away games in the Premier League and this incredible stat may help Martin O' Neil to inspire his players to reach the quarter finals. A note of caution for those tempted to back Aston Villa; O' Neil would probably be quite happy to secure a draw here and take the Toffeemen back to Villa Park in a replay in 10 days time. I really can't split these two sides and fully expect to see them squaring up again a week on Wednesday.
Draw @ 2/1 Bet365
Derby v Manchester United (4.30pm Live on ITV1)
I suppose we shouldn't be shocked to see ITV select a Manchester United game to televise, again, although to the broadcaster's defence these two sides served up a fantastic League Cup semi final in the Carling Cup a few weeks ago. Derby got a win in the corresponding fixture in that match up but Manchester United's players almost certainly had in the back of their minds the fact they got to have another go at home a fortnight later. For this one I'm struggling to see Derby repeating the feat. Nigel Clough has got this Derby team performing far better since he took charge and I expect them to give absolutely everything for this game. The United defence looks absolutely impregnable at the moment though and its on the basis of this I expect the away side to get the job done. It may not be pretty but I expect them to do the business on the night without the need for an unhelpful replay to congest the calendar. Away win.
Manchester United -1.25 on Asian Handicap @ Evens Bet365
SB
Celtic v Rangers (12.30pm Live on Setanta Sports)
These games are nearly always absolute crackers. Two sides that are spurred on by sets of supporters who have an incredible passion for this fixture usually go all out to win this one. Rangers have done a commendable job to close what was looking like a formidable gap at Christmas and Walter Smith's men may just have psychological edge over their Green and White hooped opponents. Celtic will be wondering how they managed to squander such a commanding lead in the SPL and will be desperate to put three points between themselves and the Ibrox men to increase their advantage to five points. Rangers won the first meeting of the season at Celtic Park 4-2 and I just fancy they may draw on this and punish Celtic to climb to the summit for now.
Rangers @ 11/5 Bet365
Everton v Aston Villa (2.30pm Live on Setanta Sports)
Setanta serve us a double helping of live top class football for a Sunday afternoon. Its exactly this kind of match which fails to inspire "the magic of the cup" in me, but, these are two very good sides and its just possible they may produce a contest to match. Not that I expect this one to be much of a spectacle - both sides are in lockdown mode currently, giving no quarter and conceding very few goals. Everton looked particularly impressive last weekend in the Premier League but the main man that day, on loan Brazilian striker Jo, is cup tied for this one. Aston Villa have now won seven consecutive away games in the Premier League and this incredible stat may help Martin O' Neil to inspire his players to reach the quarter finals. A note of caution for those tempted to back Aston Villa; O' Neil would probably be quite happy to secure a draw here and take the Toffeemen back to Villa Park in a replay in 10 days time. I really can't split these two sides and fully expect to see them squaring up again a week on Wednesday.
Draw @ 2/1 Bet365
Derby v Manchester United (4.30pm Live on ITV1)
I suppose we shouldn't be shocked to see ITV select a Manchester United game to televise, again, although to the broadcaster's defence these two sides served up a fantastic League Cup semi final in the Carling Cup a few weeks ago. Derby got a win in the corresponding fixture in that match up but Manchester United's players almost certainly had in the back of their minds the fact they got to have another go at home a fortnight later. For this one I'm struggling to see Derby repeating the feat. Nigel Clough has got this Derby team performing far better since he took charge and I expect them to give absolutely everything for this game. The United defence looks absolutely impregnable at the moment though and its on the basis of this I expect the away side to get the job done. It may not be pretty but I expect them to do the business on the night without the need for an unhelpful replay to congest the calendar. Away win.
Manchester United -1.25 on Asian Handicap @ Evens Bet365
SB
Friday 13 February 2009
FA Cup 5th Round - Saturday 14th February
So, its that time of year again, FA cup weekend. The 5th round allows fans and players to start to think that maybe this year will be their year, only 3 ganes from Wembley and potential glory. This year, it is made all the more interesting by the impressive form of the Championship sides left in the competition and the fact that Trevor BrookIng at Soho Square has conjoured up some intruiging home ties involving these sides against Premier League opposition.
Swansea City v Fulham (Live on ITV1, 12.45pm Kick Off)
First up brings a debut for a Premier League side at the new Liberty Stadium, a venue which the Swans have quickly turned into a fortress, losing just once in 16 league games there this season. As discussed last week, Fulham have been less convincing on the road so far, having scored just 3 goals away from the cottage in the league all season. In round 4, the Cottagers conceeded two goals to non-league Kettering before sealing a late victory whilst Roberto Martinez's welshmen secured a famous away win at cup holders Portsmouth. With Jason Scotland bang in form, Fulham won't fancy this one too much and I reckon the Swans can force the upset of the round and march on to the Quarter Finals.
Swansea @ 6/4 Bet365
Sheffield Utd v Hull City
This is a tough one to call and therefore brings good value to the punter. Sheffield United are solid enough at home but lost the big steel city deby at home to Sheffield Wednesday last week and have only won once in four attempts in the league. Hull City's impressive draw at Chelsea last week arrested what seemed an inevitable slide towards a relegation dogfight and will have provided a much needed boost to the Tigers. Kevin Blackwell's Blades will be without Lupoli and Henderson up top and Bromby at the back. With the sale of James Beattie to Stoke in January a recent memory, I can't see where the goals are going to come from. Hull proved at Stamford Bridge they were dangerous on the break with the pace of Giovanni and Marney and I predict this game will suit them perfectly. Sheffield Utd will be up for this one and will no doubt come at Hull from the first whistle. This will leave room for Hul to pick them off and advance into the quarters.
Hull @ 13/8 Bet365
West Ham v Middlesbrough
The only all Premier League tie on Saturday brings together two sides on two very different runs this seasons. West Ham pushed Man Utd all the way last weekend and were it not for a piece of genius from Giggs, may have taken something from the game and continued their previous 8 game unbeaten run. Boro on the otherhand, have slipped into the relegation zone and as a result, will have different priorities going into this one. West Ham have every right under Zola to feel they can go all the way in this competiton if they get a favourable draw. Southgate's side however, may see the cup as a welcome distraction from their league campaign and with Marlon King cup tied and Chris Riggott injured, will rotate to give the unpredictable duo of Tuncay and Emnes a run out. With this in mind, I feel that the game may become stretched and open early on. I think West Ham are value to win but more interesting may be the market on total goals.
West Ham @ 4/5 Bet365
Over 2.5 goals @ 21/20 Bet365
ADR
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