Robbo's Super Sunday Super Preview

So Sunday has come around thick and fast and with it comes two fascinating grudge matches from the Premier League.

Newcastle v Sunderland
The Tyne-Wear derby brings together two sides who are struggling to find any kind of consistent form. Newcastle, rocked by the injuries to Owen and Barton and the shenanigans of N'Zogbia haven't won in 5 games and Sunderland have won just once in the same period, when they battled to a narrow win over Fulham in mid-week. They say that when the derby comes around, form counts for nothing and this may be true. However, what cannot be overlooked are the growing undertones of discontent rumbling from the Toon faithful towards Mike Ashley the owner, and Joe Kinnear, who quite understandably, hasn't turned Newcastle into a good side over night. Ricky Sbragia is also finding his feet in Premier League management and this will be both managers' first taste of the derby atmosphere.

When assessing this one from a betting perspective, on paper it screams out draw. The thing is, this doesn't really help either side in terms of the league table or placating their expectant fans. In what is sure to be a tight affair, the difference may come from the front men. Sunderland have a constant threat in the partnership of Jones and Cisse up top and with the injury to Owen, Newcastle may find it difficult to put chances away. Derbies are always difficult to predict but I'm going to stick my neck out here and say Sunderland to edge the derby 2-1. Away win.

Sunderland to win - 15/8 Ladbrokes
Sunderland to win 2-1 - 11/1 Ladbrokes

Liverpool v Chelsea
The main event of the day brings together two sides who despite being 2nd and 3rd in the league, have largely flattered to deceive this season. Liverpool, who are continually too reliant on Steven Gerrard to rescue them come into the game on the back of 4 draws in a row and Chelsea, who despite winning their last four in all competitions, look disjointed and often find themselves unable to break sides down.

This one appears to be more about the managers than the football itself. The more Rafa Benitez seems to say at the moment, the worse his side seem to play and Big 'Phil' Scolari is becoming more and more irratic in both his approach to the english media and his team selection.

If Drogba was happy and firing, he could easily make the difference today. However, with his attempt to steal the mantel of "le Sulk" from Nicholas Anelka gathering pace, this game will once again come down to which midfield can out-bruise and out-battle the other.

This one is far too important for either side not to lose and with this is mind, I can see both sides lining up with 5 in midfiled and cancelling each other out again, despite the fact that this will play directly into Man Utd's hands. In a game I would normally avoid, I can't split them. Draw

Draw @ 2/1 Bet365

AR

Tom's 'Serie A' Preview

With television producers across the land still scarred by the memory of Laura Esposito and Mark Chapman’s on screen chemistry, any Italian football fan will probably be squinting at a PC monitor, cursing their poor broadband connection yet again this weekend. So why not have a flutter and ease the pain?

Napoli v Udinese
Udinese are one of those sides that probably shouldn’t be backed, or backed against. While Napoli were busy losing in Florence last week, Udinese stunned a rejuvenated Juventus with relevant ease (have I convinced you yet?).

Napoli at home is however as safer bet as you’ll find anywhere in Italian football. Edoardo Reja’s hungry young side are almost impregnable at home* and so far they have successfully managed to hold on to their prized assets despite strong interest from the European elite.

Udinese are not the counter attacking force they once were (as evidenced by only mustering an almost embarrassing 1-0 home win over Tottenham in the UEFA cup), while Napoli pose a serious threat to the northern elite. Home win.

Napoli @ 10/11 Bet365

*(Though not completely impregnable, as anybody who backed them during their 3-0 mauling at home to Roma will testify)

Lazio v Milan
AC Milan are yet again threatening to not even challenge for the Scudetto this year. But with no Champions league final back-up policy, the pressure is starting grow on Carlo Ancelloti. Lazio, spearheaded by the free scoring Rossi and Pandev have a pretty strong home record and will be confident of taking advantage of an aging Milan defence that was punished by a late Diego Milito strike at Genoa in midweek.

Having said that, Milan are playing quite well of late. Beckham and Ambrosini have linked up surprisingly comfortably in midfield, while Kaka and Pato’s relationship continues to flourish up top. With two dodgy defences on show and an array of attacking threat, I’ll plump for there being over 2.5 goals in this game.

Over 2.5 Goals @ 4/5 Bet365

Bologna v Fiorentina
The viola were unlucky to lose to Juventus in midweek and have a habit of grinding out away wins, while recent form doesn’t suggest Bologna will buck that trend. Cesare Prandelli’s men have one of the strongest defences in Serie A, and even without the injured Adrian Mutu, should have enough fire-power to get through a Bologna defence that let in four at home last week. Indeed, when you consider Olivier Dacourt snubbed a move to Bologna this week, you should know all you need to know about Bologna’s prospects . Away win.

Fiorentina @ 5/4 Bet365

TM

Weekend Premiership (Saturday 31st January)

Many thanks to Nick for his view from the Championship. An excellent read and some cracking prices to tempt you into the bookies this weekend. For this weekend's action, I will be previewing Saturday's games, Andy will be looking at the huge double header live on Sky on Sunday and Tom will pop in with some Continental Selections.

So, on we go with the Saturday match-ups:

Fulham v Portsmouth
This one absolutely jumps off the page at me. Fulham have been struggling a little lately and the defensive stability on which they based their excellent run at the end of 2008 seems to have deserted them in their last three games. However, all of those matches came away from home and Roy Hodgson's men have made Craven Cottage quite a fortress this season. It may surprise readers to know that Fulham are the 2nd strongest side at home this season, behind Manchester United. With only one defeat in ten at home it will take a strong side to go to Craven Cottage and get a result. Portsmouth can be described as anything but strong right now, Tony Adams has endured a torrid time as manager and his cause has not been helped by losing his best players. Hayden Mullins is no Lassana Diarra and with no replacement for Jermaine Defoe, the South Coast side are being dragged fully into a relegation dogfight. Pompey haven't won away in five league matches, and, whilst a draw is not outside the realms of possibility, it is taken to be unlikely here. Home win.

Fulham @ Evens Bet365


Stoke v Manchester City (12.45pm Live on Sky Sports 1)

Here I go, breaking one of the golden rules of gambling - selecting Man City to win twice in the space of four days. It would seem unthinkable a few weeks ago, but, Mark Hughes has finally got some of this overpaid underachievers firing again. The worrying addition of Craig Bellamy paid an early dividend on Wednesday with the Welshman bagging a goal on his debut against a very poor Newcastle side. The Citizens have found winning away difficult in recent times, with no win on the road in eight matches. However, unlike Portsmouth, scoring on the road has not been a problem, averaging over a goal a game. This Stoke defence is shipping goals left, right and centre and, with the dazzling array of attacking players Man City have at their disposal, this could spell trouble up in the potteries. Stoke have not won a league match in nine attempts, and, something has to give. Man City are taken as good value here at odds against to lift their travelling troubles. Away win.

Manchester City @ 13/10 Stan James

Aston Villa v Wigan
Aston Villa are on an incredible run of form currently in the Premier League and it will take something special to stop them winning again. Arguably, they have looked stronger away from home than at Villa Park, but, Martin O Neil's side are going from strength to strength as the season goes on. The addition of Emile Heskey looks astute, with the powerful striker scoring an excellent goal at Fratton Park on Tuesday evening. Wigan secured a commendable score draw against Liverpool on Wednesday thanks to a late penalty cooly despatched by new loan arrival Mido. Wigan would have been struggling to get a result here when they had Heskey and Palacios in the side and, as a result, Villa are selected here to get the job done and secure all 3 points.

Aston Villa @ 4/6 Coral


SB

Nick's View from The Championship

Okay, we should probably start with a little disclaimer. This comes in two parts: first, I have never had a great deal of luck with gambling – however, since my experience is limited to an occasional flutter on the rare Saturday mornings when I find myself near a bookies I feel I have not properly investigated just how deeply this bad luck/ineptitude runs. (For the record I’m pretty sure Sam still owes me a few quid after I accurately predicted that MK Dons v Peterborough would be a draw last season, so I’m not completely awful). Second, I cannot stress enough that the Championship is a right bugger to gamble on. Matches are fast-paced, physical affairs which usually turn on a couple of errors or an occasional flash of brilliance. Pretty much every team in the division is capable of beating every other on its day, the difference generally being down to managerial competence and team spirit. In recent years Premiership money has skewed things a little, but every season seems to throw up at least one team that starts to roll and never looks back (Stoke and Hull last year, Derby the year before that, Reading in 05/06 and my own beloved Norwich City in 02/03 to name a few). All this adds up to a regular slate of games with very little to choose between the teams. That said, however, there is value if you know where to look for it and at least in the Championship most of the games are played on the same day so you don’t have to wait til Monday night to see if your accumulator comes off.
On with the picks....

QPR v Reading
When Reading went up 2 years ago many people (myself included) expected their stay in the top flight to be short. Steve Coppell and his staff proved the doubters wrong then and, despite last season’s relegation, has managed to hold together the nucleus of that side, including Kevin Doyle – probably the best player in the division. Reading are certainly one of the 3 best teams in the Championship and while the surprisingly generous odds are explained by their disappointing away form and QPR’s solidity at home I still consider this too good value to pass up.
Reading win @ 13/8 Coral

Southampton v Swansea
Always a bit risky going against a team who have recently changed manager, but Southampton have been awful at home this year. The bookies seem to be thinking draw here, but Swansea are a very disciplined team with just enough guile to create some chances. They’re on a great run and I expect it to continue.
Swansea win @ 13/10 Coral

Derby v Coventry
Normally I wouldn’t consider going for three away teams in one week, but I’m thinking about singles rather than a treble. Coventry have had a few injuries recently, but have still managed some good results. They looked distinctly average at the start of the season, but Chris Coleman has worked some magic and they are a very tidy side now. Derby might be on the verge of better things under Nigel Clough, but there have been only small signs of improvement thus far. I’m thinking Coventry could steal one here.
Coventry win @ 9/4 Bet365

NC

Off to a flier (2) !

Day 2 and another 100% record. Followers of this blog will have enjoyed another 5/1 winning treble tonight to go with their 10/1 winning treble last night. Friday will see the start of a full weekend of football action and analysis.

Wednesday 28th January 2009 - Premier League Picks

So, on the back of last night’s winners, six more games from England’s premier club competition to get our teeth into.

Chelsea v Middlesbrough

Those of you over ten years old may remember Chelsea’s old club logo. It was the one they used for decades, before Chief Executive Peter Kenyon came in and decided he wanted something that looked substantially more like the logo at his previous club, Manchester United. Anyway, the old logo featured a rather angry, snarling lion and “Big Phil” Scolari will be wanting to see some roar from his underachieving side tonight. It has been an increasingly disappointing start for the Brazilian as he looks to establish his style and philosophy at Stamford Bridge but the quality of personnel at his disposal cannot be disputed. After an extraordinary last gasp win over a Stoke side that threatened to snatch all three points, somebody is in for a mauling. Enter Boro. The last time these two sides met in the league, Chelsea scored five times inside 53 minutes, and Boro were unable to conjour a goal on home ground. Gareth Southgate’s team are slipping further into a relegation dogfight and the likelihood of them taking anything from this game seems almost zero. Despite their uninspiring price, Chelsea are taken here to record a comprehensive victory. For the more confident punter, consider backing Chelsea on the Asian Handicap to win by 2 clear goals.

Chelsea win @ 2/7 PaddyPower

Chelsea -1.5 @ 7/10 Bet365

Manchester City v Newcastle

This is a clash between two teams that are usually worrying picks for punters. Manchester City have not lived up to any of their moneybags promise and Newcastle have been consistently inconsistent. However, a trend for both of these teams is starting to occur. Joe Kinnear surprised everyone with his early strong performance as Newcastle manager but he may now be ruing the number of drawn games during his first eight matches. A bright spot for Magpies fans will be their side’s 3-0 drubbing of Portsmouth at Fratton Park in December, but, on recent form this surely counts for little. Manchester City supporters have had to endure the taunts of the rest of the footballing world after the botched bid for Kaka and harmony in the squad appears to be considerably low, with Robinho the latest player to breach club discipline. The arrival of Craig Bellamy and his golf clubs is unlikely to improve this situation, but, the Welshman is a proven goalscorer at Premiership level and has enjoyed two previous spells with Mark Hughes at Blackburn and Wales. In a matchup between two poor sides, one with quality players and one without, the team with the quality is narrowly preferred. Once you factor in home advantage and Newcastle’s run of six league games without a win, it’s impossible to see past Manchester City here. Home win.

Manchester City win @ 8/11 PaddyPower

West Ham v Hull (Live on Sky Sports 2)

How kind of Sky Sports to warm our winter blues with a second consecutive night of live Premier League football. Or so I thought until I saw which game they had chosen to televise. This is one for the die hard neutrals but fans of both sides will be hoping to secure a big three points tonight at Upton Park. Manchester United aside, West Ham are the form side in the division with four wins from their past five league games and five wins in their last six games in all competitions. The situation over at Hull couldn’t be more different. This game was a scrappy affair the last time these two sides met, with Hull sneaking the win on that occasion 1-0. But things aren’t what they once were at the KC Stadium and even the capture of free-spirited Jimmy Bullard is unlikely to lift the gloom sufficiently for this one. Hull are commended for their ambition but are taken to have more success next time out at home to West Brom on Saturday. In the meantime, this one has to go down as a home win.

West Ham win @ 4/5 Stan James

Outright Treble on 3 results (Chelsea on handicap): Approx 5/1

SB

Off to a flier

Well, a good start for a first day. All 3 results picked correctly and
a nice 10/1 treble if you followed the match picks.

Another set of Premier League fixtures tonight, with predictions to
follow at lunchtime.

Nick will be here on Friday with his view from The Championship, along
with George's European selections

Tuesday 27th January 2009 - Premier League Picks

So, just a quick one to start with then.

WBA v Manchester Utd
Not much value to be had in backing Manchester United outright, but, how about an away win to nil? Should the current European Champions keep a clean sheet tonight they will set a new EPL record. Roman Pavlyuchenko's strike for Tottenham serves as a warning that this is not a forgone conclusion, but, WBA's style will allow Man Utd to play their game and a lack of hustle and bustle should instil a comfortable evening for the Champions.

Man Utd win @ 4/11 Bet365
Man Utd clean sheet @ 1.92 Betfair

Portsmouth v Aston Villa (Live on Sky Sports 2)
On to tonight's live action then. The Sky cameras will be at Fratton Park for an intriguing, if not glamorous match up. Aston Villa will be looking for their sixth consecutive away victory and following a humiliating FA Cup defeat to Swansea on Saturday, Portsmouth appear to be in dangerous waters. Aston Villa's sole signing of the January transfer window, Emile Heskey, is in line to make his bow tonight, teaming up with his former mentor Martin O Neil. Portsmouth have strengthened the squad considerably in the past couple of days with the additions of Hayden Mullins and Pele but it is felt these players will barely have had time to find a parking space, let alone gel into the squad. It could be a close one but Fratton Park is not the intimidating venue it once was. Villa are taken to increase their pressure on breaking the monopoly of the so called "big four". Away win.

Aston Villa win @ 11/8 Bet365

Sunderland v Fulham
Finally for today we focus on the clash at the Stadium of Light between the Mack'ems and the Cottagers. Despite an impressive run of results as caretaker manager, things have not gone to plan so far for Ricky Sbraglia since landing the full time role as gaffer for the Black Cats. Fulham, previously rock solid at the back, have begun to ship goals recently. Three last weekend at West Ham, followed by two at non-league Kettering in the Cup on Saturday spells signs of vulnerability along the back line. The loss of creative force Jimmy Bullard to Hull is also sure to hurt team morale and midfield strength. In a game that could possibly go either way, Sunderland are taken to sneak a result in this one. Fulham will be Craven a return to home ground and will be happy just to put this run of away fixtures behind them. For extra interest, consider Djibril Cisse for the first goalscorer of the game.

Sunderland win @ 5/4 Bet365
D Cisse 1st Goalscorer @ 5/1 Bet365

Outright Treble on 3 results: Approx 10/1

SB

Welcome to Football Insight

Welcome

Hello, welcome to my new blog. I think there's a bit of a gap in the market for free football (soccer to our American friends) betting tips. I spent five years working in the industry and hope to share some of my insight with anyone who wishes to find some information on football predictions. I will be focusing mostly on the English Premier League, but, when time allows I will dip into other divisions around the World.

Please do get in touch, I'm always delighted to hear from readers.

First set of predictions to follow shortly!

Sam.