Nick's Picks from the Championship - 21/2/09
 
Another weekend, another tough fixture list to pick from in the Championship. Lots of ties featuring struggling teams at home to high-fliers means the value is there, but so is the risk. However, we don't know the meaning of the word risk at Premier Picks Central so let's get this party started.
 
Norwich v Burnley
Last week I outlined my reasons why I usually avoid making picks involving my team, then proceeded to accurately predict that Norwich would get nothing away at Preston. This week I took one look at the fixture list and the first thing that jumped out at me was that Burnley are widely being offered at 6/4. As a neutral I would be tempted by this offer. Burnley are on a very impressive run, fighting for the playoffs while Norwich have just dropped into the relegation zone with many fans talking about relegation as if it was a certainty. I still expect Carrow Road to be jumping at kick off, but if Burnley can silence that noise early it could be a long day for Bryan Gunn's team.
 
Burnley @ 6/4 Bet365
 
Southampton v Preston
Tricky one this. Preston are still riding high in the league, but they have been a little patchy of late, while Southampton haven't started to show faint signs of life under new management. That said, Southampton have conceded 2 goals in each of their last 5 matches. Preston have struggled a little on their travels, so I'm not sure if that run will continue for the Saints, but I still can't see Southampton getting their second home win of the season. The various handicap markets don't immediately seem to offer much value, but might be worth a look if you're looking to safeguard your investment. I'm recommending the draw at 12/5.
 
Draw @ 12/5 Coral
 
QPR v Ipswich
The late game on Sky sees two teams who both had high hopes coming into the season after a summer of spending by wealthy owners, but have not lived up to that promise. As the homestretch looms now is the time to make a push for the playoffs and both sides will be looking to launch that push here. QPR have been strong at home, while Ipswich have been inconsistent both home and away. Ipswich are without a few useful players and you have to think the growing clamour for Jim Magilton to be sacked is going to prove an unwelcome distraction. I'm taking QPR here.
 
QPR @ 21/20 Bet365
 
Treble pays 16/1

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UEFA Cup Round of 32 - 19/2/09
 
If you wanted proof that Spring is on the way here comes the return of the UEFA Cup. We've finally got the rather too blatantly money-spinning group stage out of the way and can now get on with the tournament proper. Aston Villa had a tough time at home last night and will face a tough task in Moscow in their away leg; tonight sees two more English clubs in action.
 
FC Copenhagen v Manchester City - BBC 3 - K.O. 19:05
Both the English clubs in action tonight will be playing their away legs first and I suspect both will be very happy this is the case. Man City may have struggled at times this season (particularly away from Eastlands), but you have to think they were delighted to be drawn against Copenhagen. Expect the Danes to be disciplined and hardworking, but the talent available to Mark Hughes should be sufficient to see Man City return home with a lead.
 
Man City @ 7/5 Coral
 
Shakhtar Donetsk v Tottenham Hotspur - Five - K.O. 18:45
It is no secret that Spurs have struggled woefully at times this season leaving them 2 points clear of the relegation zone and in genuine danger of the drop. With this fear hanging over the club it is no surprise that Harry Redknapp has basically admitted that the UEFA Cup is little more than a distraction for his team at the moment and that he is far more concerned about the Premiership game against Hull on Monday. Donetsk are always going to be something of an unknown for teams from Western Europe. The one thing that is widely known is that they have pots of money thanks to one of those oligarch owners that were all the rage before the global economy imploded. This means that they will field a side stuffed with Brazilian talent who came to the Ukraine for a big paycheque with no concerns about work permits (after all, the Premiership is hardly short on clubs that would be only too happy to offer big money to players from all over the world if the pesky Home Office would let them). I was originally thinking that Spurs could forget about their home troubles for an evening and snatch a draw here, but the list of players that aren't available for various reasons includes Defoe, Keane, Palacios, Cudicini, Modric, Woodgate, King, Lennon, O'Hara and Corluka. Expect to see some unfamiliar faces in Spurs' colours tonight.
 
Shakhtar Donetsk @ 10/11 Coral
 
Double pays £45.84 on £10.00 Stake

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FA Cup 4th Round Replay Monday February 16th

Arsenal v Cardiff (Live on Setanta Sports)
Well I think its a relief to us all that this tie will finally be put to bed tonight. 22 days after Arsenal and Cardiff played out a rather stale 0-0 at Ninian Park, Setanta dare again to show the replay at The Emirates. This one was called off two weeks ago because of the heavy snow and now, a round behind the rest of the competition, these two sides will meet for a chance to play Burnley in round 5. Arsenal go into this game as heavy favourites but they really have not been playing well, failing to score in their last three games. Their exciting new signing Arshavin is cup tied, Adebayor has a hamstring injury and Croatian striker Eduardo is still not match fit. Championship Cardiff are a difficult side to break down and their run to the Final last season will be a source of inspiration as they look to reach the latter stages of this competition again. Due to Arsenal's lack of form, their paucity of options in midfield and attack and the fact that Cardiff will be chomping at the bit for this game, I'm going to take the Welsh side to secure at least a draw in 90 minutes play.

Draw @ 100/30 Stan James

Inter Milan v AC Milan (7.30pm Live on BBC Three)

Given the BBC’s decision to decorate us all with a late valentine’s gift, its only right we focus our attention exclusively on Sunday’s Milan derby.

The Case for Mourinho

The ‘special one’ will be desperate for a win here considering the 1-0 reversal his side suffered at the hands of the Rossenari earlier in the season. After seeing Juventus drop off the pace in recent weeks, Inter will be keen to cut off the recent optimism from across the City, and eradicate suggestions that their great rivals could pose their biggest threat.

Inter’s defence is the meanest in all of Italy and will be more than confident of holding a Milan side likely to be without Kaka, their most creative influence. Indeed Inter’s main problem could be in attack. They rely heavily on support from their Brazilian full backs, and news of an injury to Maicon could be a big blow. While Zlatan Ibrahimavic undoubtedly has the quality, and has been far more consistent this season, the doubts still remain about his reliability in the big games. Indeed with Daniel Bonera out suspended, Milan could potentially field a central defensive partnership of Paolo Maldini and Philipe Sendoras; Zlatan will therefore get his chance, whether he takes it or not will be the key to a Nerazzuri victory.

The Case for Ancellotti

With Kaka a sidelined (though there have been whispers of a shock return) and Ronaldinho looking ineffectual for the last three months, Milan’s hopes of breaking the iron tight Inter backline look slim. Indeed their lack of real striking options was highlighted against lowly Reggina only last week. Add that to an injury and suspension hit backline, and most punters will probably be predicting a home win here.

Milan though know how to play the really big games. While Ancelotti’s men are often criticised as being over the hill, in the likes of Seedorf, Beckham, Maldini, Shevchenko and Ronaldinho (the list goes on), they have more than enough experience to handle the big occasion. With Alessandro Nesta rated 50-50, his return to the Milan defence could hold the key to their chances.

Prediction: A tough one to call, but with a draw probably acceptable to Inter, I expect Mourinho to perhaps be a little over negative here, and if Inter’s defence can’t be breached in open play, there’s always likely to be a chance from a set-piece, and who better to have than Ronaldinho and Beckham in your ranks

Inter 1-1 Milan 11/2

Sunday February 15th - FA Cup 5th Round and Old Firm Derby

Its just possible that the three games left this week are even more difficult to predict than the two I had a crack at last Sunday. Still, buoyed from being only whisker away from landing an unlikely double, here we go with a chance to capitalise on some decent prices.

Celtic v Rangers (12.30pm Live on Setanta Sports)
These games are nearly always absolute crackers. Two sides that are spurred on by sets of supporters who have an incredible passion for this fixture usually go all out to win this one. Rangers have done a commendable job to close what was looking like a formidable gap at Christmas and Walter Smith's men may just have psychological edge over their Green and White hooped opponents. Celtic will be wondering how they managed to squander such a commanding lead in the SPL and will be desperate to put three points between themselves and the Ibrox men to increase their advantage to five points. Rangers won the first meeting of the season at Celtic Park 4-2 and I just fancy they may draw on this and punish Celtic to climb to the summit for now.

Rangers @ 11/5 Bet365

Everton v Aston Villa (2.30pm Live on Setanta Sports)
Setanta serve us a double helping of live top class football for a Sunday afternoon. Its exactly this kind of match which fails to inspire "the magic of the cup" in me, but, these are two very good sides and its just possible they may produce a contest to match. Not that I expect this one to be much of a spectacle - both sides are in lockdown mode currently, giving no quarter and conceding very few goals. Everton looked particularly impressive last weekend in the Premier League but the main man that day, on loan Brazilian striker Jo, is cup tied for this one. Aston Villa have now won seven consecutive away games in the Premier League and this incredible stat may help Martin O' Neil to inspire his players to reach the quarter finals. A note of caution for those tempted to back Aston Villa; O' Neil would probably be quite happy to secure a draw here and take the Toffeemen back to Villa Park in a replay in 10 days time. I really can't split these two sides and fully expect to see them squaring up again a week on Wednesday.

Draw @ 2/1 Bet365

Derby v Manchester United (4.30pm Live on ITV1)
I suppose we shouldn't be shocked to see ITV select a Manchester United game to televise, again, although to the broadcaster's defence these two sides served up a fantastic League Cup semi final in the Carling Cup a few weeks ago. Derby got a win in the corresponding fixture in that match up but Manchester United's players almost certainly had in the back of their minds the fact they got to have another go at home a fortnight later. For this one I'm struggling to see Derby repeating the feat. Nigel Clough has got this Derby team performing far better since he took charge and I expect them to give absolutely everything for this game. The United defence looks absolutely impregnable at the moment though and its on the basis of this I expect the away side to get the job done. It may not be pretty but I expect them to do the business on the night without the need for an unhelpful replay to congest the calendar. Away win.

Manchester United -1.25 on Asian Handicap @ Evens Bet365

SB

FA Cup 5th Round - Saturday 14th February

So, its that time of year again, FA cup weekend. The 5th round allows fans and players to start to think that maybe this year will be their year, only 3 ganes from Wembley and potential glory. This year, it is made all the more interesting by the impressive form of the Championship sides left in the competition and the fact that Trevor BrookIng at Soho Square has conjoured up some intruiging home ties involving these sides against Premier League opposition.

Swansea City v Fulham (Live on ITV1, 12.45pm Kick Off)

First up brings a debut for a Premier League side at the new Liberty Stadium, a venue which the Swans have quickly turned into a fortress, losing just once in 16 league games there this season. As discussed last week, Fulham have been less convincing on the road so far, having scored just 3 goals away from the cottage in the league all season. In round 4, the Cottagers conceeded two goals to non-league Kettering before sealing a late victory whilst Roberto Martinez's welshmen secured a famous away win at cup holders Portsmouth. With Jason Scotland bang in form, Fulham won't fancy this one too much and I reckon the Swans can force the upset of the round and march on to the Quarter Finals.

Swansea @ 6/4 Bet365

Sheffield Utd v Hull City

This is a tough one to call and therefore brings good value to the punter. Sheffield United are solid enough at home but lost the big steel city deby at home to Sheffield Wednesday last week and have only won once in four attempts in the league. Hull City's impressive draw at Chelsea last week arrested what seemed an inevitable slide towards a relegation dogfight and will have provided a much needed boost to the Tigers. Kevin Blackwell's Blades will be without Lupoli and Henderson up top and Bromby at the back. With the sale of James Beattie to Stoke in January a recent memory, I can't see where the goals are going to come from. Hull proved at Stamford Bridge they were dangerous on the break with the pace of Giovanni and Marney and I predict this game will suit them perfectly. Sheffield Utd will be up for this one and will no doubt come at Hull from the first whistle. This will leave room for Hul to pick them off and advance into the quarters.

Hull @ 13/8 Bet365

West Ham v Middlesbrough

The only all Premier League tie on Saturday brings together two sides on two very different runs this seasons. West Ham pushed Man Utd all the way last weekend and were it not for a piece of genius from Giggs, may have taken something from the game and continued their previous 8 game unbeaten run. Boro on the otherhand, have slipped into the relegation zone and as a result, will have different priorities going into this one. West Ham have every right under Zola to feel they can go all the way in this competiton if they get a favourable draw. Southgate's side however, may see the cup as a welcome distraction from their league campaign and with Marlon King cup tied and Chris Riggott injured, will rotate to give the unpredictable duo of Tuncay and Emnes a run out. With this in mind, I feel that the game may become stretched and open early on. I think West Ham are value to win but more interesting may be the market on total goals.

West Ham @ 4/5 Bet365

Over 2.5 goals @ 21/20 Bet365

ADR

Championship Picks - February 14th

Another weekend has rolled around and it's time to take another stab at the gambling nightmare that is the Championship. Yes, things have been going pretty badly thus far, but our luck could change at any time so, for all those punters looking for some ammunition for their romantic Valentine's Day trip to the bookies, here are a few select tips.

Preston v Norwich
Regulars may have noticed that I have been avoiding picking Norwich City games. Norwich are my team and that means I find them very hard to pick for two reasons. One is good old fashioned superstition - you never want to jinx your team, even though you know exactly how stupid that sounds. The second is a little more sensible - gambling should be as dispassionate as possible and it is impossible to be dispassionate about your team. That said, this tie screams 'home win' to me. Preston have made Deepdale a fortress this season and the increased capacity from their new stand will only make it a harder place to go. Norwich have struggled on their travels for several years now and this is a major reason why they are currently residing near the foot of the table. Bryan Gunn's installation as manager has seen a marked improvement in Norwich's football, but wins are still proving hard to come by. Preston are a big, physical team and Norwich lack both height and strength. The return of Jason Shackell on loan should help to tighten up a back line that has been woeful at times, but I expect Preston to be too strong overall.

Preston @ 5/6 Stan James

Doncaster v Sheffield Wednesday
This match sees two sides who are in excellent form at the moment. Sheffield Wednesday will be on a high after their victory over arch-rivals Sheffield United last weekend while Doncaster are absolutely flying in the league - unbeaten in 7 league games. The bookies don't seem to know what to make of this one, but I think Doncaster's incredible run gives them the edge. Check out the Asian Handicap for a chance to give your bet a little bit of security.

Doncaster -0.25 @ 7/8 Bet365

Scunthorpe v Bristol Rovers
An interesting week in League 1 with all of the top four at home to mid-table teams. No doubt there is plenty of value in an accumulator, but I'm picking out Scunthorpe v Bristol Rovers as my final game of the day. Scunthorpe have been on a very good run of late and are strong both home and away. Bristol Rovers' form has been patchy with several good results, but they have been much better at home. Expect Scunthorpe's Grant McCann to be in good form after his goal for Northern Ireland in midweek. I'm suggesting the straight win bet with an eye to a treble with all three of my picks, but if you're looking for something with a little more spice Scunthorpe have scored exactly 2 goals in their last 6 matches. Blue Square will offer you 9/4 for them to make that 7 in a row.

Scunthorpe @ 4/6 Paddy Power

Treble pays 5/1

Scunthorpe to score exactly 2 goals @ 9/4 Blue Square

NC

Spain get the job done (Spain 2 - 0 England)

As is becoming customary for "no football Thursdays" a brief review of yesterday's selections. We highlighted just the British televised live game, Spain v England, as a chance to capitalise on a potentially low scoring game. As predicted, it was a match with few chances, neither goalkeeper having to work too hard to earn their match fee. Spain ultimately showed their class and dominance and England missing the outstanding Rio Ferdinand looked uncomfortable at times with Jagielka and Upson both at fault for each of the Spanish goals. In the end, Spain were the quality footballing side and got the job done - but punters who followed this website's advice to go under 2.5 goals will be picking up their winnings today.

Tomorrow, a full look ahead to this weekend's FA Cup 5th Round action.

SB.

February 11th - Spain v England (Live on ITV1 9pm)

So, into the midweek interlull we stumble. International Football undoubtedly has a place in the modern game but midweek friendlies during the business end of the season do little to inspire this blogger's excitement. Still, its a match between two good sides, sure to be played in a good atmosphere and offers opportunities to the must-bet punter. Potential gamblers must be wary when getting involved with friendlies as a plethora of substitutes and a lack of commitment can breed a match which does not follow the formbook. Spain are a very strong side, the reigning Champions of Europe and have a dazzling array of star players to choose from. It is worth remembering that their success is as much built on their defensive solidarity as their flair and pace up front. Fabio Capello's England are almost watertight at the back and aside from a sloppy own goal last time out, acquitted themselves very well in an away fixture at the perenially strong Germany. On the basis of this, I'm expecting a low scoring affair and anyone wanting to get involved in this one may want to to think tentatively about going lower on the total goals market.

Total Goals Under 2.5 @ 4/6 Betfair

SB

Leeds v Millwall - Quick Pick
 
Sam has asked me to post some quick thoughts about tonight's televised game in League One between Leeds and Millwall. I can only assume I've done something to upset him. This match pits 7th against 6th - a strong home team against a solid away team. Millwall have struggled a little recently and are without a couple of important players, but they also hold a 5 point lead over Leeds with 2 games in hand at this stage of the season. Normally this situation would scream 'draw', but neither side has had many of those this season. Millwall won the reverse tie 3-1 back in October and I'm going with them again today if for no better reason than that 7/2 is too good to pass up.
 
Millwall @ 7/2 SkyBet

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Sam's Super Sunday Special

Well how did it come to this? Left holding the baby with the Super Sunday double header, both games involving a far superior side playing away in a game which the home side would feel entitled to believe they may snag at least a point. Thanks to my colleagues' eagerness to cover every other base by now, I'm also left in the unenviable position of having to write a preview on Tottenham v Arsenal, a game which for personal reasons I hate taking a view on. So, with those happy thoughts, time to get underway with this week's Super Sunday selections.

Tottenham v Arsenal (1.30pm Sky Sports 1)
Where to start with this one? Tottenham spent most of the month of January hoovering up any player who once pulled on the Spurs jersey. The returns of the average Chimbonda, the now injured Defoe and the often ineffectual Keane may not make as much of a difference as the £30m outlay on the three of them suggests. However, the squad now has much more depth and balance and Harry Redknapp is undoubtedly a top class motivator. Redknapp won't have any trouble getting his team up for this one, and, in his first game in charge oversaw an incredible comeback to salvage a 4-4 draw at The Emirates in one of the most incredible Premier League games ever. Arsenal are thought by many to be underperforming, but, the poor quality of many of their personnel suggests they are probably punching at about their weight. Unbeaten in 9 Premier League games, the stat suggests they are better than they are, many of these have been low scoring draws against inferior opposition. The Gunners do raise their game for the big matches, as evidenced in the victories against Manchester United and Chelsea, but, for this one I just can't split them.

Draw @ 2/1 Bet365

West Ham v Manchester United (4pm Sky Sports 1)
Another intriguing fixture completes the live on Sky double header. Gianfranco Zola has really turned around the Hammers in recent times, guiding them out of a difficult slump before Christmas. The predicted fire sale and financial crisis failed to materialise in the January window and as a result the squad now has the look of tightknit unit which has learned to play together. This, however, is as tough a test as they will face. Manchester United have the look of a side that has already won the league and are cantering along to pick up the trophy in April. The reigning champions have not conceded a league goal in 11 games and without the firepower of the poisonous influence that is Craig Bellamy, West Ham could struggle to break the deadlock here. There is some encouragement for the home fans however and that is Man Utd have only won once in their last nine visits to the capital and on the back of this surprising stat I'm going to take West Ham to grind out a hard working draw here.

Draw @ 11/4 Bet365

Double pays 10/1

SB

Tom's Serie A Picks 7th February

Some great games in Italy this week, though perhaps not for the keen punter, Roma v Genoa is undoubtedly the game to watch, while a desperate for a win Juventus travel to a Catania side that have comfortably beaten a number of top sides, including Roma on their own patch.

Leece v Inter

Betting on Inter Milan, the side that have lifted the Scudetto for the last three years, are currently top of the league, and have one Jose Mourinho in charge, I know what you’re thinking, I’m quite the tipster! (And this is before we discuss the might of those European giants Leece).

Well, given the 4/7 price (Inter are usually offered at around 1/4) and the array of tough fixtures in Serie A this week, this doesn’t represent bad value at all. Despite last weeks win at Siena, Leece are in the midst of a relegation scrap and don’t have the firepower to match the best squad in Italy.

Inter win @ 4/7 Bet365

Sampdoria v Siena

It’s been a difficult season for Sampdoria, who despite the odd cameo from the mercurial Antonio Cassano, have struggled more than most to hit the back of the net this season. They are however still a force to be reckoned with at home, and with new recruit Giampaolo Pazzini scoring on his debut last week, I expect Sampdoria to start climbing the table with a win here.

Sampdoria Win @ 3/4 Bet365

Fiorentina v Lazio

Fiorentina always represent great value, mainly because despite their consistency they seem to be avoided when Joe Britain automatically ticks off Milan, Inter and Juventus on his weekly coupon. Although Lazio won the reverse fixture quite comfortably earlier in the season, they have now lost 3 on the spin and wont envy a trip to the Artemio Franchi.

With Mutu and Gilardino linking beautifully up front, I expect Fiorentina to continue their fine form ahead of a tough run of fixtures that includes mouth-watering trips to Genoa and Ajax.

Fiorentina Win @ 3/4 Bet365

TM

Special Bonus Snow Pick

Word has reached us at Premier Picks Central that the match between MK Dons and Crewe tomorrow afternoon has already fallen victim to the weather. Not wanting to sell our loyal readers short on their weekend tips we have leapt into action to produce one more bonus pick to fill that gap.

Swansea City v Ipswich
First and foremost, the weather forecast in Swansea for tomorrow looks to be okay so hopefully this match will be going ahead. I wouldn't be at all surprised if a whole slate of games gets called off before lunchtime tomorrow so lets make the most of it. A glance at the form book shows two sides who are riding a decent string of results and still hoping to make a big push for the playoffs. Swansea's home form has been very impressive this season with only one defeat at the Liberty Stadium, however their achilles heel has been draws with 8 of them coming at home against only 6 wins. Ipswich have actually been better away from Portman Road this season and may sniff an upset here, but they are without a couple of influential players. It looks like a close one and I can see home draw number 9 for Swansea looming.

Draw @ 12/5 Paddy Power

NC

Nick's Picks from the Lower Leagues

Sheffield United v Sheffield Wednesday

Another week, another cracking derby game in the Championship. The Steel City rivalry is a big one with tons of history and the match itself should be closely fought. Sheffield United are flying this season, while their cross-town rivals are comfortable enough in midtable. If there is a reason to fear being sucked into the relegation dogfight for Wednesday it is their away form. They've only one twice on the road this season with 4 draws and 9 defeats. Bramall Lane hasn't exactly been a fortress for United, but 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats is solid enough and their recent good form should continue with a win here. 10/11 for the win from Stan James should be decent value for an accumulator, but if you're looking for bigger returns you might want to look at the winning margin market. Bet365 will give you 5/2 on Sheffield United to win by 2 or more goals.

Sheffield United @ 10/11 Stan James

Sheffield United to win by 2 or more goals @ 5/2 Bet365

Reading v Preston

Okay, I got burned on Reading last week, but this match sees them return to the Madjeski Stadium which has been an absolute fortress for them this season. Preston are flying high in 6^th, but have struggled on their travels and I'm sure would be happy with a point from this game. 4/6 isn't exactly going to make you rich, but the various markets on goals etc aren't offering much value. If I had to take a punt I would suggest a 2-1 Reading win Correct Score bet at 7/1 with most bookmakers.

Reading win @ 4/6 BlueSQ

Reading 2-1 Win Correct Score @ 7/1 Bet365

MK Dons v Crewe

My last pick is a dip into the lower leagues. 2^nd v 22^nd shouldn't provide much value and therefore it isn't surprising Milton Keynes are 4/9 to win. Their home form is solid, if not spectacular, but Crewe's dire away form is responsible in no small part for their current predicament. Not a bad banker for an accumulator here, but for better value I suggest the handicap market which will give you 11/10 for MK Dons -1.

MK Dons -1 @ 11/10 Bet365

NC

Premier League - Saturday 7th February

Robbo is back with his second batch of predictions after coming narrowly close to tipping a profitable double last Sunday in the two big derbies. Sunderland had many a chance to secure a tipped up 2-1 (11/1) win over their Toon rivals and were it not for the antics of Alan Wiley, Chelsea may well have hung on for the bore draw we all expected. Still, the beauty of betting on football is you can always get back on the horse!

The mid week exploits in the cup and the two big games on Sunday means Saturday provides some testing but potentially lucrative fixtures:

Man City v Middlesbrough

First up, the mercurial, frustrating and often unfathomable Man City. Last week, Sam tipped them up for what seemed a comfortable win at Stoke and they got beat 1-0. This week however, the key factor when backing them returns, Eastlands. At home, Man City have notched up 27 goals this season in the league (more than anyone else) and often seem to burst out of the blocks (a fact to which Hull can testify). Couple this with Middlesbrough's dismal run of games without a win which has seen them drop to second bottom and surely even Man City cannot fail here.

With Robinho and Bellamy working off the creativity of Ireland in midfield, the Boro back line of Bates, Riggot, Wheater and friends will surely have no answer. Southgate is in trouble this season. I don't see Man City helping him out this weekend.

Man City @ 8/13 Bet365

Wigan v Fulham

The JJB plays host to two of the surprise packages of the season when Fulham come to town. Going into February, few would have predicted 7th v 9th as the positions of Bruce and Hodgson's men at this stage in the season. Much like Man City above though, the location of the game is a huge factor here. Fulham have been immense at home but away from the Cottage, have only scored 3 times and haven't won once.

You could argue that this will change sometime and with the sales of Heskey and Palacious undoubtedly likely to weaken the Wigan side, why not Saturday? Well, a few reasons. The first being Jimmy Bullard who was Fulham's outstanding player of the season before he joined Wigan in the window. Secondly, the JJB is not an easy place to go. Bruce has his team well organised and with Valencia, Zaki and the unknown threat of Rodallega, they have more about them than Fulham. Thirdly, Wigan are Evens to win at home here and I think the bookies have got this one wrong.

Wigan @ Evens Coral

Everton v Bolton

Finally, in my treble for the day, I have gone for one of those rare things in football bets: The draw. What? I hear you ask. Everton in great form and buoyed by their mid-week win over Liverpool against a Bolton side who have won only once in seven. Well, it is precisely for those reasons why I think Bolton will get something Saturday. Everton's extra time efforts will have taken their toll and with Moyes still cursing injuries to many and falling out with Anichebe, his squad will be stretched and drained. For Bolton, their one win came last week against Spurs and arrived in a manner which will no doubt have lifted the spirits in the dressing room.

Everton will give a debut to Jo who has come in from Man City but from what we have seen of him, he isn't going to turn them into Champions League contenders. Megson is likely to go with 5 in midfield and use Taylor and Gardner to support a direct approach up to Kevin Davies. I don't expect a classic here either but I think it is quite plausible that Bolton can grind out a draw.

Draw @ 5/2 BlueSQ

Total treble price - 11/1

Good luck - Robbo

FA Cup Replays Go To Plan

Just a quick one today as the only game of the evening is the match up at Burton, which, at time of writing, looks highly doubtful due to fresh snowfall.

Everton v Liverpool went very much as predicted, dull, dour and lacking in any kind of attacking imagination. Anyone who backed the draw or Everton with a handicap headstart as reccommended will have done just fine. Well done to ITV too who managed to heap yet more disdain and ineptitude on themselves and their live sport coverage.

Nottm Forest v Derby started off terribly for anyone who followed the advice to back the away side. Forest took a 2-0 early lead which they thankfully squandered, before Derby completed an amazing comeback to win 3-2. It was a tentative selection but the value was certainly there.

Blackburn v Sunderland looked like the banker to me yesterday but the Ewood Park side just couldn't get the job done in normal time. For all their chances and posession, it required a late Extra Time winner from Benni McCarthy to seal their progress. Frustrating for the punter who took some of the home win in 90 minutes, but, this is often the risk with betting on cup replays.

I hope some of you managed to capitalise on two good results at decent prices.

Tomorrow: A double domestic preview on this Saturday's Premiership and Football League action.

SB

FA Cup Replays - Wednesday 4th February

Well folks, last night didn't go to plan did it? The supposed outsider of the three trotted home quite comfortably (Burnley) but Wolves made an almighty mess of their game, with credit due to Norwich for a thrilling fightback. Perhaps Wolves need that new centre back after all. Preston just couldn't get the ball in the net against Plymouth and had to settle for a point, let's hope we can salvage something from tonight's fixtures. Finally, we have seen a big increase in traffic to the site the last couple of days - please do bookmark us and check back regularly; we update the blog daily every morning and are all delighted so many people are reading.

Blackburn v Sunderland
This one looks stupendous value for the punter who checks their team news. Blackburn are undoubtedly suffering from a couple of injuries, the most serious being Brett Emerton who will now miss the rest of the season. There is some positive news for the home side, however, as transfer-target Roque Santa-Cruz is expected to play up front tonight. Benni McCarthy isn't expected to start but will be available from the bench should Sam Allardyce require some extra firepower. After putting in 110% in the Tyne derby match on Sunday, Sunderland are expected to rest a number of key players. The Black Cats could field a handful of unrecognisable faces and the strong striking partnership of Djibril Cisse and Kenwyne Jones are both expected to be stood down for the evening. Injury plagued goalkeeper Craig Gordon is due to return, but, Sunderland will be missing three key defenders and Blackburn are taken here to get the job done.

Blackburn @ 10/11 Coral

Everton v Liverpool (8.10pm ITV1)
This must be one of the most tedious trilogies since Star Wars. A fixture which often promises so much but rarely delivers, it would be a joy if just for once the intensity on the pitch matched that of the supporters in the stands. These two sides have already played twice in the past fortnight, with the result being a 1-1 draw on each of those occasions. Can someone sneak it tonight? In reality, the answer is probably no. Both managers prefer a cautious approach to big games and the reversal of fortunes in form at the weekend (Everton losing to Manchester Utd and Liverpool beating Chelsea) is likely to be negated by Everton taking home advantage. Viewers should expect a late evening, likely to involve extra time. To cover yourself against a home victory, consider Everton on the Asian Handicap.

Everton +0.25 @ 9/10 Bet365

Nottingham Forest v Derby
Nottingham Forest manager Billy Davies has been quick to play down the importance of getting a result tonight against his former side, instead deciding to focus his attentions on Championship survival. With this in mind, expect Forest to play a weakened, possibly youthful, side, but do not underestimate how fierce this local rivalry is and how much Billy Davies would enjoy seeing his side get one over his former club. The home team are missing a number of key players, however, including their two main strikers Joe Garner and Robbie Earnshaw. Derby look like they are back to winning ways and have produced their best form in cup games this season. Nigel Clough will be delighted that creative spark Kris Commons is available and is set to name a full strength side in this one. A lucrative tie against Manchester United awaits the victors. Its a very tentative selection, but, I fancy Derby may just sneak this one.

Derby +0.25 @ 10/11 Bet365

SB

FA Cup and Championship Preview - Tuesday 3rd February

So, that wasn't a great weekend was it? Only Nick's Superbowl preview really identified some success and I hope you all had a bit of Arizona +7 which was excellent value. Many comiserations to Tom who almost tipped a lovely treble on his blog debut - only a 2 goal Udinese comeback away at Napoli denying him a clean sweep for his Serie A column. Now back onto the football again, but, these predictions are very much subject to conditions. Thanks to the wintry weather in the UK many games are already off, including Arsenal's FA Cup replay with Cardiff.

Burnley v West Brom (FA Cup 4th Round Replay)
What a wonderful season Burnley have had. Only moments away from reaching the Carling Cup Final, Owen Coyle's men have also been going great guns in the league, just two points off breaking into the play off positions. West Brom are still struggling in the Premiership and there may not be as much as a gap between these two sides as many think. Factor in Burnley's home form, their impressive cup performances so far this season and the fact West Brom are missing their key centre backs. Burnley won't enjoy being favourites but, at odds against, they are too good to pass up.

Burnley @ 13/10 PaddyPower

Preston v Plymouth (Coca Cola Championship)
Plymouth are one of those sides that seem to overperform every season. Or maybe they are just perennially underestimated. Having said that, the formbook doesn't reflect well on the Pilgrims' road form, having only one once in eight attempts away from Home Park. In that same period, Preston have won six of their eight home games and only lost one of those, Deepdale is becoming quite a fortress. Preston are 6th in the league and will be desperate to hold onto their playoff spot - they are more than good enough to be a playoff side. With this in mind, Preston are taken to comfortably beat Plymouth tonight.

Preston @ 4/6 Bet365

Wolves v Norwich (Coca Cola Championship)
These two sides were relatively busy in yesterday's transfer window deadline day. Mick McCarthy bought in a Scotland International centre back to shore up his defence whilst Norwich manager Bryan Gunn secured a couple of loan signings. None of these signings are expected to have any real significant impact on this fixture which was likely to be one sided before and is still expected to be so. On a cautionary note, Norwich do tend to raise their game against the bigger sides and put in good performances when they lost to Reading 2-0 and beat Wolves in this corresponding fixture 5-2 back in October. There is, however, a gulf in quality between these two sides and with only one away win in eight, Wolves are taken to record a convincing win here.

Wolves -1 on Match Handicap @ 6/4 Bet365

NC / SB

Superbowl Special

It’s Superbowl time across the pond and this means gambling opportunities galore for the open-minded punter. This year the game is being played in Tampa, Florida, and features the mighty defence of the Pittsburgh Steelers against the flamboyant passing attack of the Arizona Cardinals. The NFL’s growing popularity in the UK has prompted most bookies to open up a broad range of markets from the mundane to the weird and wonderful. With this in mind the team have put together a selection of picks to illustrate the whole range of options and suit every punter.

The Game
In a two-horse race like this one you wouldn’t expect the market to offer too much value and the Steelers are heavy favourites at as little as 2/5 with many big bookmakers (Ladbrokes, Sky Bet, BetFred). You can shop around to find 10/23 with Boylesport, but the real value comes from the handicap market. The points spread is offering Arizona +7 in many places and this could be a generous offer. No one is quite sure how Cardinals’ offensive line will handle Pittsburgh’s blitz-happy defence. If they can keep QB Kurt Warner upright then the Card’s receivers could have some joy. If this is the case those 7 points could make all the difference, not to mention allowing you to cover yourself in the event of an upset.

Arizona +7 @ 20/23 BetFred

The Players
There is a wealth of markets for player bets in the Superbowl. Most popular is the market for Most Valuable Player. This award is basically Man of the Match and is generally wide open. There is plenty of value here, particularly since I don’t expect either Quarterback to have a stellar game. Arizona wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald has been fantastic in the playoffs and could be a good shout if things go the Cardinals’ way, but at anywhere between 5 and 8/1 there doesn’t appear to be much value for a man whose team is a heavy underdog. My view is that the best value is to be found with the poster boy of the Pittsburgh defence, Troy Polamalu. BetFred are offering 18/1 on the long-haired tackling machine who will almost certainly be central if the Steelers D dominates, definitely worth a pop. If you fancy taking a punt on a darkhorse, Arizona’s rookie sensation cornerback, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie has been on fire in the playoffs and has some great value at 80/1.

Most Valuable Player
Troy Polamalu (Pit) @18/1 BetFred
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (Ari) @ 80/1 Ladbrokes

The Bizarre
There really are markets for everything in this game. Personal favourites are the coin toss (nothing like throwing money at 50-50 pure chance) and the yardage assessed on the first penalty. I’m going for the market on whether Kurt Warner will throw a Touchdown pass before he throws an Interception. Ladbrokes will give you 4/6 for a TD while BetFred is offering 6/5 on an INT. I’m backing Kurt on this one, he’s seen it all before and he’s rejuvenated this year - a good combination in a big game. He’ll get one early.
What will be thrown first? – Kurt Warner

Touchdown pass @ 4/6 Ladbrokes