Betfair Football

Saturday 14 February 2009

Inter Milan v AC Milan (7.30pm Live on BBC Three)

Given the BBC’s decision to decorate us all with a late valentine’s gift, its only right we focus our attention exclusively on Sunday’s Milan derby.

The Case for Mourinho

The ‘special one’ will be desperate for a win here considering the 1-0 reversal his side suffered at the hands of the Rossenari earlier in the season. After seeing Juventus drop off the pace in recent weeks, Inter will be keen to cut off the recent optimism from across the City, and eradicate suggestions that their great rivals could pose their biggest threat.

Inter’s defence is the meanest in all of Italy and will be more than confident of holding a Milan side likely to be without Kaka, their most creative influence. Indeed Inter’s main problem could be in attack. They rely heavily on support from their Brazilian full backs, and news of an injury to Maicon could be a big blow. While Zlatan Ibrahimavic undoubtedly has the quality, and has been far more consistent this season, the doubts still remain about his reliability in the big games. Indeed with Daniel Bonera out suspended, Milan could potentially field a central defensive partnership of Paolo Maldini and Philipe Sendoras; Zlatan will therefore get his chance, whether he takes it or not will be the key to a Nerazzuri victory.

The Case for Ancellotti

With Kaka a sidelined (though there have been whispers of a shock return) and Ronaldinho looking ineffectual for the last three months, Milan’s hopes of breaking the iron tight Inter backline look slim. Indeed their lack of real striking options was highlighted against lowly Reggina only last week. Add that to an injury and suspension hit backline, and most punters will probably be predicting a home win here.

Milan though know how to play the really big games. While Ancelotti’s men are often criticised as being over the hill, in the likes of Seedorf, Beckham, Maldini, Shevchenko and Ronaldinho (the list goes on), they have more than enough experience to handle the big occasion. With Alessandro Nesta rated 50-50, his return to the Milan defence could hold the key to their chances.

Prediction: A tough one to call, but with a draw probably acceptable to Inter, I expect Mourinho to perhaps be a little over negative here, and if Inter’s defence can’t be breached in open play, there’s always likely to be a chance from a set-piece, and who better to have than Ronaldinho and Beckham in your ranks

Inter 1-1 Milan 11/2

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