Nick's View from The Championship

Okay, we should probably start with a little disclaimer. This comes in two parts: first, I have never had a great deal of luck with gambling – however, since my experience is limited to an occasional flutter on the rare Saturday mornings when I find myself near a bookies I feel I have not properly investigated just how deeply this bad luck/ineptitude runs. (For the record I’m pretty sure Sam still owes me a few quid after I accurately predicted that MK Dons v Peterborough would be a draw last season, so I’m not completely awful). Second, I cannot stress enough that the Championship is a right bugger to gamble on. Matches are fast-paced, physical affairs which usually turn on a couple of errors or an occasional flash of brilliance. Pretty much every team in the division is capable of beating every other on its day, the difference generally being down to managerial competence and team spirit. In recent years Premiership money has skewed things a little, but every season seems to throw up at least one team that starts to roll and never looks back (Stoke and Hull last year, Derby the year before that, Reading in 05/06 and my own beloved Norwich City in 02/03 to name a few). All this adds up to a regular slate of games with very little to choose between the teams. That said, however, there is value if you know where to look for it and at least in the Championship most of the games are played on the same day so you don’t have to wait til Monday night to see if your accumulator comes off.
On with the picks....

QPR v Reading
When Reading went up 2 years ago many people (myself included) expected their stay in the top flight to be short. Steve Coppell and his staff proved the doubters wrong then and, despite last season’s relegation, has managed to hold together the nucleus of that side, including Kevin Doyle – probably the best player in the division. Reading are certainly one of the 3 best teams in the Championship and while the surprisingly generous odds are explained by their disappointing away form and QPR’s solidity at home I still consider this too good value to pass up.
Reading win @ 13/8 Coral

Southampton v Swansea
Always a bit risky going against a team who have recently changed manager, but Southampton have been awful at home this year. The bookies seem to be thinking draw here, but Swansea are a very disciplined team with just enough guile to create some chances. They’re on a great run and I expect it to continue.
Swansea win @ 13/10 Coral

Derby v Coventry
Normally I wouldn’t consider going for three away teams in one week, but I’m thinking about singles rather than a treble. Coventry have had a few injuries recently, but have still managed some good results. They looked distinctly average at the start of the season, but Chris Coleman has worked some magic and they are a very tidy side now. Derby might be on the verge of better things under Nigel Clough, but there have been only small signs of improvement thus far. I’m thinking Coventry could steal one here.
Coventry win @ 9/4 Bet365

NC